Now here are some definitions you may find on the PMP exam:
Uncertainty
Lack of knowledge of future events
Goals of PRM
To identify project risks and develop strategies which either significantly reduce them or take steps to avoid them.
Opportunity
The probability those outcomes will be favorable.
Risk
The probability those outcomes will be unfavorable.
Project Risk
Is the cumulative effect of the chances of uncertain occurrences adversely affecting project objectives.
Risk Factors
1. Risk Event – Precisely what might happen to the detriment of the project
2. Risk Probability – How likely the event is to occur
3. Amount at Stake – The severity of the consequences
Probability
Probability = Frequency of relevant events
Total number of possible events
Risk Event Status (criterion value or ranking)
Risk Event status = risk probability x amount at stake
Processes
1. Risk Identification
Determining which risks are likely to affect the project and documenting the characteristics of each. Can be classified as:
a. Scope – Risk associated with changes of scope or the subsequent need for “fixes” to achieve the required technical deliverables.
b. Quality – Failure to complete tasks to the required level of technical or quality performance
c. Schedule – Failure to complete tasks within the estimated time limits, or risks associated with dependency network logic
d. Cost – Failure to complete tasks within the estimated budget allowances
2. Risk Quantification
Evaluating risks and risk interactions to assess the range of possible project outcomes.
3. Risk Response Development
Defining enhancement steps for opportunities and responses to threats.
4. Risk Response Control
Responding to changes in risk over the course of the project.
Identification
1. Inputs
a. Product description
Risk depends on the nature of the product. Proven technology has less risk than products requiring innovation and invention.
b. Other Planning outputs
Review outputs from the processes for possible risks, e.g., WBS, cost estimates and schedule duration’s, staffing plan, procurement management plan.
c. Historical information
2. Tools and Techniques
a. Checklists
b. Flowcharting
Helps understand the cause and effects of risks.
3. Outputs
a. Sources of Risks
This includes such items as stakeholder actions, unreliable estimates, team turnover, changes in requirements, insufficiently skilled staff.
b. Potential Risk Events
Precisely what might happen to the detriment of the project, such as natural disasters, requirement for development of new technology, etc.
c. Risk symptoms
These sometimes are called triggers, early warning of an impending event, etc.
d. Inputs to other processes
Risks can be inputs to other processes as constraints or assumptions.
Quantification
1. Inputs
a. Stakeholder risk tolerances
This provides a screen for both inputs and outputs to risk quantification.
b. Sources of risk
c. Potential risk events
d. Cost Estimates
e. Activity duration estimates
2. Tools and Techniques
a. Expected Monetary value
This is the product of risk event probability of occurring times the risk event value (could be a gain or loss).
b. Statistical sums
This calculates the range of alternative project budgets from the cost estimates for individual work items.
c. Simulation
The most common is Monte Carlo analysis, which is used to analyze the behavior or performance of the system. The results of a schedule simulation may be used to quantify the risk of various schedule alternatives, different project strategies, and different paths through the network or individual activities.
d. Decision Tree
e. Expert Judgment
3. Outputs
a. Opportunities to pursue, threats to respond to
This is a list of opportunities that should be pursued and threats that require attention.
b. Opportunities to ignore, threats to accept